[LCC] Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on Bouvet Island

[marsh at ka5m.net]

Forwarded by Marsh KA5M


> Begin forwarded message:
>
> Subject: FW: [PVRC] W3LPL Propagation is likely to be above normal through
Sunday
> Date: February 3, 2023 at 7:06:12 AM CST
>
> FROM W3LPL
>  
> Detailed VOACAP propagation forecasts from your QTH to 3Y0J on
> Bouvet Island for every HF band are described in detail at
> www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bGId8CHySE
> and available for download at www.voacap.com/dx/bouvet
> Bouvet sunrise is at 0417Z and sunset is at 1942Z.
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web
> pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
> All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
>
> Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals
> and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday.
>
>
> Click here for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three
hours.
> Click here for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions, updated regularly.
>
> The February 3rd daily Estimated International Sunspot Number
> is 67. Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 135 and is likely remain
> about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has
> one medium and three tiny active regions containing 16 sunspots
> with a total sunspot area of 180 micro-hemispheres
> (about the surface area of the Earth).
> https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
>
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
> the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
>
> 40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia
> at about 0000Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path
> propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
> likely to be normal through Sunday. 40 meter long path propagation
> from North America to east and southeast Asia at about 2145Z is
> likely to be normal through Sunday.
>
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions
> is likely to be above normal through Sunday. 30 meter long path
> propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at about
> 2145Z is likely to be above normal through Sunday. 30 meter
> propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
> local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
>
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
> and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Sunday.
> 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
> and sunset is likely to be above normal through Sunday.
>
> 17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be
> above normal through Sunday. 
>  
> 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be
> above normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation
> from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely
> to be above normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
> crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced
> when the solar flux index is above 120 and geomagnetic activity
> is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).
>
> There is a slight chance through Sunday of trans-equatorial
> F2 propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
> South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is
> a lesser chance through Sunday of oblique-TEP from the southern
> tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone 32 and VK/ZL during mid-afternoon
> and early evening in the U.S. There is a lesser chance that
> U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into both TEP
> and oblique-TEP via isolated intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E
> propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
> oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
> TEP beginning on page 66 at:
> https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf
>
> Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component
> of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but
> unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor
> to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
> IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength
> of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects
> of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent,
> longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
> suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward
> orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger than
> 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects
> of an Earth directed fast CME (faster than 1000 km per second). Real
> time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
> solar wind speed and short term K Index forecast are available here:
> www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
>
> No radio blackouts are expected through Sunday.
>
> Solar wind parameters through late Friday are likely to be
> mildly enhanced then improving to mostly nominal through Sunday
> due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.
>
> Geomagnetic activity through late Friday is likely to be
> mostly quiet with a chance of unsettled periods and a slight
> chance of isolated active intervals due to waning coronal hole
> high speed stream effects, then improving to mostly quiet
> through Sunday.
>
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 43 minutes later and
> day length is 54 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.
>
>
>
> Click here for today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at
1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
> Click here for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated
every three hours.
> Click here for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
> Click here for today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily.
> Click here for today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and
Forecast updated at 2330Z daily.
>
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net